There are always a bunch of analysts coming out at the beginning of each year in the market, shouting that a certain index will hit a new high, or predicting a surge in precious metals. And what’s the result? Most of the time, they’re setting traps for retail investors. But today, I want to talk about something different — not vague speculation, but opportunities derived from over ten years of crypto market experience and historical data.

Let’s first look at the data itself. Since Bitcoin’s inception, it has experienced three complete bull and bear cycles. This is not a coincidence, but an inevitable pattern resulting from repeated market capital battles. The first bear market started from the high in November 2013 and adjusted down to the bottom in January 2015, taking 410 days. The second began after the peak in December 2017 and took 363 days to exit the bottom region. The third cycle saw a high in October 2021 and a bottom at the end of November 2022, exactly 377 days.

What are the characteristics of these numbers? Each bear market adjustment cycle has been stable at around one year. No matter how much fluctuation occurs in between, this rhythm remains unchanged. This is not a coincidence — it’s the market equilibrium reached through repeated battles by large funds.

Even more interesting is the power of the bull market initiation. After each of the three bear bottoms, Bitcoin achieved gains of 13x, 20x, and 7x respectively. Based on this cyclical pattern, the current bull market is likely to peak around October 2025. The reason is straightforward: the rise and fall of the crypto market are highly correlated with global liquidity. When a loose cycle ends, the market will initiate a correction.