#美联储降息政策 Seeing this analysis from QCP Capital, I am reminded of the 2017-2018 cycle. Back then, it was also a similar narrative—massive capital flowing into a hot sector, but the actual business models lagging behind. The difference is that, at that time, we could still comfort ourselves with the "technological innovation cycle," but this time, the delayed monetization of AI makes the stock market face a more painful reality.

The Federal Reserve presents a classic dilemma—dovish rate cuts signal attracting liquidity to continue chasing growth stories, but hawkish tendencies also remind us that risks have not fully dissipated. The forecast for 2026 is quite interesting; I have seen too many predictions that "problems will erupt at a certain future point," and each time, it’s no false alarm. The $2.8 billion in passive funds may flow out; the number doesn’t seem huge, but in a highly concentrated market, such flows often trigger chain reactions.

The key is AI infrastructure—investment is still accelerating, but the consensus that revenue growth is lagging has already formed. This isn’t like early tech cycles where imagination could sustain for a long time, because everyone is watching the books. Once this gap is fully priced into the market, it’s hard to say it will be limited to AI itself. I’ve seen similar revaluation processes in 2015, and the diffusion speed can exceed expectations.

What’s worth noting is that all of this has not fully unfolded yet. The pace of Fed rate cuts, corporate earnings realization, and index inclusion policies—these three variables will determine the upcoming rhythm. History has shown me that preparing contingency plans in advance is much wiser than betting on a single direction.