The cycle of the crypto market is like the tide, seemingly following a pattern. But this time, the pattern has become more complex.

Some say there might be a "Shanzhai Season" in 2026, but this is no longer an era where you can make money by blindly going all-in. Structural opportunities and traps coexist, and the difference between those who profit and those who get trapped lies in their understanding of market rhythm.

**Can the Shanzhai Season happen?**

Bitcoin halving has passed nearly a year ago (April 2024). According to historical patterns, the peak may occur 12 to 18 months after the halving. Meanwhile, Ethereum's Cancun upgrade has reduced transaction fees by 90%, and the ecosystem's activity has also rebounded. Institutions are not idle; they continue to pour money into top assets through ETFs, making the market's underlying structure look quite stable.

But there's a problem: the sharp decline in October 2025 liquidated $19 billion, exposing that the market depth was actually insufficient. The current rally, frankly, is driven by short covering, with new buying interest not keeping up, making the rebound somewhat fragile.

**How does capital rotate?**

The flow of funds follows a classic chain: Bitcoin leads the rally, followed by Ethereum, then large-cap altcoins, and finally small- and mid-cap tokens. Currently, the market is stuck in the transition from the second to the third stage—Ethereum is rising, but altcoins overall haven't gained momentum.

The AI concept and blue-chip DeFi projects (like UNI, AAVE, which have cash flow) along with new tracks like Ethena and Pendle are key directions to watch. But before entering, you need to think clearly: when will these tokens become the next landing point for capital?