In 2026, a question that has always hovered over the financial markets has yet to find an answer.

At last month’s press conference, someone directly asked the current Federal Reserve Chair whether he would continue to serve as a board member after stepping down in May this year—his term still has two years remaining. The response was simply, "Focus on doing the current job well," with nothing more.

His silence caused a stir on Wall Street and in the White House. Why such concern? Essentially, it’s about who can influence the future direction of the Federal Reserve, and it could even determine whether a certain president can exert greater influence over the Fed. Historically, departing Fed chairs have generally stepped down outright, but now this one’s ambiguous attitude is truly unprecedented.

His true thoughts are not hard to guess: on one hand, having served 13 years at the Fed and 8 years as chair, he’s eager to return home—spend time with his grandchildren, play golf, strum the guitar, and resume a normal life; on the other hand, he has deep feelings for this institution and is wary that a certain president might threaten the Fed’s independence—after all, several government departments have already experienced power centralization.

Most market participants believe that once he leaves, he will likely step back entirely. But a short-term continuation cannot be ruled out. If he really leaves, the three board members appointed by that president could hold the majority vote. When they band together and vote, the ultra-low interest rate environment that has been desired for years might finally become a reality. The current silence may be a way of saying: when I leave is up to me, and I will announce it once I’ve made up my mind.

The direction of interest rate policy concerns the future of every asset holder—from traditional finance to crypto markets—and it all hinges on the moment this answer is revealed.