2026-01-02 18:20:56

Currently, as 2025 approaches its end, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical crossroads. Recently, over 30 leading financial institutions have mentioned the same phenomenon in their 2026 outlook reports — the 14-year "four-year halving cycle" for Bitcoin is beginning to fail. The underlying logic is quite interesting: the main driving force of the market is shifting from the supply side (the halving event of miners) to the demand side (continued allocation by large institutions). In simple terms, Bitcoin is evolving from a "speculative asset for retail investors" to an "institutionally recognized asset."

This shift is most visibly reflected in spot ETFs. These ETFs continuously buy Bitcoin, providing solid liquidity support. Unlike retail investors' emotional buying and selling, institutional capital flows follow asset allocation models, making them more rational and systematic. Because of this, Bitcoin's price volatility has actually become more stable — the intense fluctuations triggered by halving events are now less likely to occur. From this perspective, Bitcoin's performance is gradually approaching that of mature macro assets like gold. Some institutions have even suggested that 2026 could be Bitcoin's "coming of age," and by then, its price performance might seem "boring," but this precisely indicates that it is maturing.

There is also a deeper change worth noting: the price discovery mechanism is being reconstructed. The traditional halving cycle theory is based on "supply and demand imbalance" — halving means a sharp reduction in new coin supply, which pushes prices higher. But now, the situation has changed. Data shows that Bitcoin held by spot ETFs now accounts for 18% of circulating supply, whereas in 2020, this figure was only 1%. Institutional investors' sensitivity to "supply reduction" has clearly decreased; their focus has shifted to larger macro variables such as macro liquidity, interest rate policies, and regulatory developments. This indicates that Bitcoin's pricing power is being redistributed, moving from micro supply-side data to macro economic factors.

BTC1,29%

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SleepyArbCat

· 4h ago

Institutions take over, retail investors get the shaft. The path of turning into gold is destined to be boring to death. The halving has failed... Does that mean my overnight dollar-cost averaging strategy still has life? 18% of the circulating supply is locked, and this is the biggest arbitrage opportunity. Limited wakefulness means you need to seize it quickly. When macro pricing power shifts, is the high gas fee cross-chain harvesting opportunity also gone? Coming-of-age ceremonies are just for listening; I still bet on volatility.

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GweiWatcher

· 4h ago

Has the halving failed? From now on, investing in cryptocurrencies will depend on the macro environment. Retail investors are really at a disadvantage now. Institutions are buying the dip so aggressively, liquidity is so stable, yet the thrill of sudden surges is gone... This is the price of maturity. ETF holdings skyrocketed from 1% to 18%. This data is incredible; the pricing power has completely shifted. It's okay to be bored; at least I don't have to watch the ups and downs of the market every day. Just treat it as a dollar-cost averaging into gold. No wonder institutions are paying attention to interest rates and liquidity. The supply-side theories are really outdated. Retail investors need to learn some macro strategies.

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CryptoPhoenix

· 5h ago

Wait, the institutional allocation ratio has increased from 1% to 18%, now that's the real story. Retail investors' halving dreams should wake up. It's called "maturity" in nice words, but actually it means the price won't rocket anymore, and we have to accept the "boring" fate. This wave of mindset reconstruction might be more painful than the decline itself. Macro liquidity > halving expectations? Then all my years of chasing cycles have been in vain, and just thinking this through would have prevented me from being constantly cut. The cost of crossing cycles is watching the once-fortune-making code become invalid. It's time to adjust the pricing logic. From a speculative asset to an asset allocation tool, sounds stable, but what is lost is the possibility of getting rich overnight. Whether large institutions entering is good or bad, it's really hard to say. The 18% concentration actually makes me a bit worried—if institutions sell, what will retail investors do? Bitcoin's coming of age? I see it more as a process of domestication; can an asset that has lost its wild nature still be called Bitcoin?

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CodeAuditQueen

· 5h ago

This logical loophole is quite significant... If ETF accumulation reaches 18%, it can rewrite the 14-year pattern? Feels like they're looking for an endorsement for stablecoins. The rise in institutional pricing power is a fact, but has the supply-side logic really failed? It's just been drowned out. Let's wait and see in 2026. Currently, this set of arguments is still missing something... I’ve never believed the conclusion that even audits don't pass. Those institutional reports claiming it will become "boring"... just listen, don't take them as gospel. The reconstruction of price discovery is interesting, but unfortunately most people simply don't understand the underlying state changes. Flow data can't be fooled, but a change in narrative definitely changes people. Thinking back to 2017... no matter how good the story, if the fundamentals collapse, they collapse.

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