Fidelity 2026 Outlook: Bitcoin Expected to Meet National-Level Demand, Long-Term Investor Window May Still Be Open

【Blockchain Rhythm】In Fidelity’s 2026 Crypto Market Outlook, an interesting question is raised: Is now the right time to enter the market, or is it still too early?

The answer seems to depend on your investment horizon. If you’re aiming for short-term gains, you might need to think more carefully. But for long-term investors, there may still be opportunities at this stage.

Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Digital Asset Research at Fidelity, provides an analysis from a game theory perspective — in the future, more countries may include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves. Once a country does this, others will face pressure to follow suit. After all, in international competition, no one wants to fall behind. From basic economics, this additional institutional demand could directly push prices higher. Of course, the key is how large this incremental demand will be and whether other holders will continue to hold or choose to cash out.

Corporate purchases of digital assets indeed increase market demand and help support prices. But Kuiper also warns of the other side of the risk — if these companies are forced or choose to sell some assets during a bear market, it could put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. It’s a double-edged sword.

Regarding the widely discussed four-year cycle, Kuiper believes it has not disappeared because the fear and greed driving the cycle always exist. Is the current price fluctuation the beginning of a new bear market or a normal correction within a bull market? It’s still unclear, and we may have to wait until the second half of 2026 for the answer.

More importantly, the market paradigm is quietly changing. An increasing diversity of investor classes are entering — from traditional fund managers to institutional investors, all beginning to allocate to Bitcoin and other digital assets. Kuiper straightforwardly states that what we are seeing now is probably just the tip of the iceberg, and the scale of this incremental capital has enormous potential.