2025 Gold Market Outlook: Will the Price Per Ounce Continue to Rise?

Since the second half of 2024, the gold market has been surging. After briefly pulling back from the historic high of $4,400 per ounce, the market’s optimism about gold’s prospects remains undiminished. How high will gold per ounce go? What is the logic supporting this rally? Let’s analyze this “gold bull market” from multiple dimensions.

What do experts say? 2025 Gold Price Targets per Ounce Overview

Amid market volatility, top global institutions are surprisingly optimistic about gold—

J.P. Morgan Commodity Research Team states that the recent correction is a healthy technical adjustment, which actually boosts their confidence in the long-term outlook. The team has raised their Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs maintains its consistent optimistic stance, reaffirming their forecast of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Bank of America strategists are more aggressive; after raising the target price to $5,000, recent comments hint that gold could even challenge $6,000 next year.

Domestic well-known jewelry brands (Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, Chow Sang Sang, Tse Sui Luen, etc.) still quote fine gold jewelry prices stably above 1,100 yuan/gram, with no significant decline, indirectly confirming market recognition of gold’s value.

If these predictions come true, there is still considerable room for gold to rise from current levels.

The behind-the-scenes of gold price surges: three core supports

To understand why gold can continue to strengthen from 2024 into 2025, we must recognize the three forces driving this trend.

Geopolitical uncertainty increases safe-haven demand

Changes in U.S. policy environment in early 2025 have triggered adjustments in global market expectations. Uncertainties in tariffs and trade relations directly elevate market risk premiums. During similar historical periods (such as the 2018 U.S.-China trade war), gold typically experienced short-term gains of 5-10% during policy uncertainty phases, but the current rally has far exceeded this level.

When geopolitical risks escalate and political tensions rise, investors naturally turn to gold, regarded as the “ultimate safe-haven asset,” pushing its price higher.

Federal Reserve rate cut expectations alter asset attractiveness

Throughout 2024, the market was once full of expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, the decline in gold prices after the September FOMC meeting is noteworthy—since the rate cut was in line with expectations and already priced in, and Powell’s “risk management” language cooled expectations for continued rate cuts.

Understanding the relationship between gold and interest rates is crucial. Gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates—where real interest rate = nominal interest rate – inflation rate. Fed decisions directly influence nominal rates, thereby affecting the opportunity cost of holding gold.

According to CME Fed Funds Futures, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the December meeting is as high as 84.7%. You can track real-time expectations of Fed rate changes using the FedWatch tool, which is an effective reference for short-term gold volatility predictions.

Central banks worldwide continue to increase holdings, changing reserve structures

Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that in Q3 2024, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. In the first nine months, central banks accumulated about 634 tons, slightly below the same period last year but still well above historical averages.

In a WGC survey last year, 76% of respondent central banks indicated they plan to increase gold reserves over the next five years, with most expecting a corresponding decrease in dollar reserves. This trend reflects a move toward diversification of reserve assets, with gold’s status as a “risk-free asset” becoming increasingly prominent.

Other factors driving the per-ounce gold price higher

Besides the three main drivers above, the following backgrounds continue to support gold prices:

Global high debt environment limits policy space — By the end of 2024, global debt totals $307 trillion. High debt levels constrain central banks’ policy options, leading to accommodative monetary policies, which depress real interest rates and indirectly boost gold attractiveness.

Reassessment of the dollar’s reserve function — As dollar volatility increases and confidence in the dollar wavers, gold, as a dollar-denominated asset, benefits and attracts cross-border capital inflows.

Geopolitical conflicts intensify — Ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, turmoil in the Middle East, and other geopolitical tensions keep the safe-haven attribute of precious metals priced into the market.

Social media and public opinion effects — Continuous news coverage and social discussions reinforce investor sentiment, potentially attracting large speculative capital in the short term and increasing price volatility.

It’s important to note that these short-term factors may cause sharp fluctuations, but do not necessarily indicate a long-term trend. For Taiwanese investors, currency fluctuations between USD and TWD also impact the final returns on foreign-currency-denominated gold holdings.

Is there still an opportunity for gold investment now?

After understanding the logic behind the price increase, many investors face the same question: Is it too late to enter now?

In fact, it depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

For short-term traders

If you have some market experience, the current volatility environment offers abundant trading opportunities. The liquidity of the gold market makes it relatively easier to judge the direction of price movements, especially during periods of high volatility. Experienced traders can leverage increased volatility around U.S. economic data releases for high-frequency trading.

But novice investors should be cautious: start with small amounts, avoid blindly adding positions. Once psychological defenses break down, it’s easy to chase high and cut low, risking total loss. Learning to use economic calendars to track U.S. economic data can help better predict gold’s short-term movements.

For medium- and long-term holders

Buying physical gold for long-term preservation is feasible, but be prepared for significant fluctuations. Gold’s annual volatility averages 19.4%, not inferior to the S&P 500’s 14.7%.

Also, recognize that gold’s investment cycle is usually long. Over a 10+ year horizon, gold’s ability to preserve and appreciate value is certain, but it may double or be halved during this period. Physical gold has higher transaction costs (typically 5-20%), so over-concentration is not recommended.

For asset allocators

If you consider gold as part of a diversified portfolio, it’s certainly worth considering. But never allocate all your assets to gold. A more balanced strategy is: hold gold long-term, and use short-term price fluctuations (especially around U.S. data releases) for tactical trading to maximize returns. This requires some market experience and risk management skills.

Investors should remember three points:

1. Gold volatility is not lower than stocks; annual volatility averages 19.4%
2. Gold’s investment cycle is long; long-term psychological preparation is needed
3. Diversification always beats concentrated bets on a single asset

Follow real-time gold prices, seize every ounce’s price fluctuations, and choose a suitable trading strategy—that’s the rational approach for investors.