Having been in this circle for several years, the thing I fear most is when the market consensus is too high. Whenever everyone is shouting in unison in one direction, I become alert—because the market is most skilled at slapping down such consensus.

Recently, after observing the scene, the bearish voices predicting Bitcoin will break 90,000 by the end of the year are becoming more unified. Honestly, this extreme consensus of pessimism is actually exciting. Remember March 2020? Bitcoin was halved in one day, and many people were shouting "Crypto is over." And what happened next? That was precisely the starting point of the next bull run.

**Emotional lows are often signals of market turning points**

In early December, a flash crash wiped out over $4,000, plunging the market into a state of "extreme fear." The sentiment indicator I track once dropped to around 20. Looking at historical data reveals a pattern—every time it falls below 25, there’s a noticeable rebound in the following one or two quarters. What does this mean? When newcomers panic and run, the smart money has already sensed the opportunity. The market always belongs to the few who make money at the expense of the many.

**On-chain data is the real truth**

Just looking at sentiment isn’t enough; I trust on-chain hard data more. Recently, in the past 24 hours, most of the liquidations involved shorts, indicating that bearish positions are being gradually cleaned out. Even more interesting, whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have quietly increased their holdings over the past week.

And there’s a detail—some long-standing addresses are offloading, seeming to put pressure on the market. But every time this happens, funds are quietly absorbing at the bottom. This scene is all too familiar. Every bottom looks like this: retail investors panic and exit, while big players calmly accumulate.