The global economy is looking for supplies, gold keeps rising, $4,900 is within sight.

Gold is Really Making Headlines Now The price of gold has not only crossed the psychological level of $4,000 but also surged to $4,181 per ounce in October amid market surprise. According to data, gold has soared 66% in the first half of 2025 — faster than anyone expected.

However, this is not a random, unpredictable event. It is a response to what is happening in the global economy.

What Do Global Financial Experts See?

Goldman Sachs votes for higher gold setting a target of $4,900 for the end of 2026 — an upgrade from the previous target of $4,300. The main reason is the unprecedented amount of central bank gold purchases worldwide.

UBS also has a positive outlook expecting gold to reach $3,500 by the end of 2025, as emerging market countries are aggressively accumulating gold reserves.

In the Philippines, experts believe that the gold price in Thailand could reach 75,000-80,000 THB if calculated from the $4,900 target.

What’s Causing Gold to Surge?

1. Trade War — President Trump announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. This conflict has led investors to seek safe havens, with gold becoming the primary choice.

2. Central Banks Lower Interest Rates — The Federal Reserve has paused rate hikes, reducing the cost of holding gold and making gold prices more attractive in other currencies.

3. De-dollarization — Central banks around the world, especially in Asia and Africa, are accumulating gold to reduce reliance on the US dollar, with net purchases around 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years.

4. BRICS Financial Outlook — News that the BRICS group may launch a gold-backed digital currency is boosting buying interest again.

Gold Rises Due to Anxiety

The main trading results are not driven by speculation but by genuine uncertainty. When the US-China conflict escalates, interest rates fall, and central banks start worrying about the dollar — gold prices tend to rise accordingly.

This is exactly what we are seeing right now.

Caution: When Might Gold Betray?

If China-US negotiations succeed — tensions ease, and gold could drop sharply.

If the dollar strengthens again — if the US economy remains strong, the Federal Reserve might reconsider further rate cuts, which would pressure gold prices.

Profit-taking risks — after eight consecutive weeks of gains, investors may start to lock in profits.

How to Read Technical Signals

RSI falling into Overbought — indicates short-term selling might occur, but if RSI remains high, the overall trend is still strong.

Candlestick patterns indicating what — Shooting Star candles appear frequently, but since the main trend is upward, this might just be a pause.

Fibonacci Retracement — after a significant rally, levels at 38.2% and 61.8% become new support points.

Trading Strategies for Now

1. Dip Buying — wait for gold to retrace to support levels around $3,850–$3,900, then buy with targets at $4,084–$4,113.

2. Breakout Retest — if the price tests $4,000 again and holds well, this is a good entry point for profit.

3. Fibonacci Trading — draw Fibonacci from $3,500 to $4,059, then wait for reactions at 38.2% and 61.8%.

Important: Investing involves risks. Always set stop-loss levels. Don’t hesitate to exit if the situation changes.

Summary: Gold Will Continue Upward, But Stay Calm

Gold in 2025–2026 is expected to keep rising, with the $4,900 target seeming realistic. For the Thai market, this translates to 75,000–80,000 THB, which remains within the realm of possibility.

But remember: Gold is not a straight-line asset. It will pause, it will correct. As long as the fundamental factors remain — trade uncertainties, rate cuts, de-dollarization — gold still has reasons to go higher.

For those looking to buy: No need to rush. Wait for a small pullback to get in at a better entry point.