Recently exploring long positions in BTC, the system levels (4-hour and daily charts) are actually bearish, but my intuition tells me the upside might be greater—this is often a gamble.

Honestly, this decision is a bit impulsive. But from another perspective, trading is essentially a game of probabilities; every indicator and moving average is just a tool to assist in assessing those probabilities. They are useful, but not infallible. Signal distortions happen quite often, so the first lesson is to prepare for the worst—setting stop-losses is a necessary course to stay alive and exit the market.

Even more frightening are psychological traps. Recently, I’ve fallen into one myself: a bullish mindset has already formed, and KOLs on social media are shouting targets of 98,000, then my mind automatically starts calculating profit figures and brainwashing myself. At this point, I’m essentially infecting my judgment with a "virus." Munger’s words are quite accurate—"The man with a hammer sees every problem as a nail." In trading, this kind of thinking most easily leads to holding onto positions stubbornly and refusing to cut losses, ultimately losing everything.

The method to avoid anchoring bias is actually very simple: constantly remind yourself that you might be wrong. Leave enough risk buffers and don’t let a single judgment turn into obsession.