2025-12-24 16:23:31

Ladies and gentlemen, the Christmas holiday has not yet arrived, but the "frozen period" in the crypto market has already set in. As the US stock market closes, global liquidity instantly evaporates, and the crypto circle is even more in a "water shortage" state—under these market conditions, it's easy to get caught at high levels and become a Christmas decoration.

I've been watching the market for 8 years, and I have a judgment to share first: don't be fooled by the slight fluctuations before the holiday. A new downward cycle is forming, and at this stage, it's not the time to buy the dip but a window for timely stop-loss. Why am I so confident? Let me break it down.

From a fundamental perspective, the US stock market closure directly drains half of the global liquidity reserves. The crypto market relies heavily on capital; now that the water source is cut off, a small amount of funds trying to push the market cannot create waves and is more likely to be precisely targeted by bears in a low-liquidity environment—like a market with no supervision, bad things are more likely to happen.

Looking at the technical side, this is the real weakness. BTC has recently been consolidating at high levels, appearing stable, but the trading volume has shrunk for five consecutive days. This is a typical sign of "virtual fat"—if it can't go up, it will go down; this is the market law. My calculations show that short-term support for BTC is at $85,000-$85,500. Once this level is broken, the next target is $82,000; ETH's situation is even more severe, as it is weaker than BTC, with support levels at $2,750-$2,800. If broken, it will likely retest the previous bottom at $2,600.

The operation advice is straightforward: don't fall into the "Christmas optimism trap." Protecting your principal is more urgent than pursuing gains at this stage. Reducing positions, controlling risks, and waiting for confirmation signals are the right moves.

ETH-0.7%

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AirdropNinja

· 5h ago

Eight years of market intuition is not for nothing. This time, I really have to take advice... If liquidity dries up, no one can save it. Getting dangerously overweight is about to break, and having to stand guard then is really annoying. Haha, Christmas decorations. The analogy made me laugh. We really became decorations at a high level. Reducing positions to protect capital is the right way. We all must have suffered losses when greed was at play. I remember the number 82,000. Once it breaks, we'll know who was right. This wave of liquidity evaporation is truly disgusting. I hate this kind of market during holidays. The trading volume has shrunk for 5 days? The signs of being dangerously overweight are too obvious. Looks like I need to cut losses.

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TommyTeacher

· 5h ago

Oh no, it's that time of the year again—"Christmas decoration trap"—why do I keep falling into this pit? If you're a veteran of 8 years, you might want to listen, but the problem is, what should I do with my current positions? Should I really sell? The term "virtual fat" is spot on; BTC is just like that—most deceptive during sideways trading. Once 85,000 breaks, I really start to feel a bit scared. The last time I was this nervous was… never mind, maybe I should reduce some positions first. Liquidity evaporation is really brutal. When the US stock market closes, everything gets chaotic. Retail investors suffer the most. Will the 82,000 level rebound? I think this might be an opportunity… but protecting the principal first is the right move. ETH is indeed weak. The problem is, I bet everything on it, and now I’m a bit regretful. This kind of market is a test of mental resilience—seeing who can stay calm and avoid bottom fishing. Why does the market always get active right before holidays? I agree with reducing positions, but how much to cut? 50% or 30%? The Christmas optimism trap—so on point. I’m exactly the kind of person who easily falls into that trap.

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LiquidatedTwice

· 5h ago

Eight years of market intuition, how timid to say this. I think you should have run before the holiday; now it's a bit late to say it. I'll temporarily believe in the "virtual fat" theory, but can the 85,000 support really hold? I think it's probably just the appetizer. The term "Christmas optimism trap" is well used; indeed, it's time to cut positions. Capital preservation is the most important. It's the old tune of reducing positions to protect the principal, but is this time really different? "If it doesn't rise, it will fall"—is this a rule or your rule?

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DaoTherapy

· 5h ago

The fake fat is between 85,000 and 85,500. If it doesn't break, I won't believe it; if it breaks, it will drop directly to 82,000. The bears are just waiting to hunt now. With liquidity shrinking, you still want to buy the dip? You're overthinking it. I don't want to wear Christmas decorations; better to run first. This wave of reducing positions is the most solid move. Greedy people will regret it. In low liquidity, any sell-off can cause a big accident. Don't gamble on luck.

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MissedAirdropAgain

· 5h ago

Here we go again with the bearish talk, but brother, this wave of technical analysis really hits the point. If 85,000 breaks, it will be really troublesome. Liquidity evaporation is real. Once the US stock market closes, we’ll be orphans, and it’s uncomfortable. But to be fair, after 8 years of watching the market, the judgment still needs to be listened to. Reducing positions is indeed more comfortable than going all-in. I'll pick up some ETH if it drops to 2600, anyway, I'm not in a rush to get rich. This Christmas decoration analogy is hilarious, haha. Looks like I better run first.

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