BTC fell below 100,000 USD, multiple factors triggered a market pullback, and Large Investors are still increasing their holdings.

At the beginning of 2025, the market fell into a dull period.

The $100,000 mark for Bitcoin has become a dividing line between bull and bear markets. On Monday, Bitcoin broke through $100,000, which was seen as the beginning of a new upward trend, but the good times were short-lived, as it started to decline just two days later. On Tuesday during U.S. trading hours, Bitcoin hit a low of $92,600, down nearly 10% from Monday's high of over $102,000, and is currently quoted at $94,212.

Bitcoin has pulled back, and other cryptocurrencies have followed suit with declines. Ethereum has dropped to $3,300, Solana has fallen below $200, and altcoins are generally down by 10%. The U.S. stock market has also been affected, with several leading mining companies' stock prices dropping by 5-8%.

Although the decline is still within a controllable range, the market sentiment has significantly cooled down as Bitcoin approaches its price at the beginning of the year. Coupled with the news that Silk Road Bitcoins are about to be sold, the market is further exacerbated. Some analysts even predict that Bitcoin may drop to $70,000 before Trump's inauguration speech.

The main reasons for this round of decline include:

First, macroeconomic data exceeded expectations. The number of job vacancies in the U.S. in November surpassed 8 million, reaching a six-month high. The ISM services index for December also exceeded expectations. Strong economic data means that the Federal Reserve may continue to maintain a hawkish stance, and expectations for interest rate cuts are cooling. This has an impact on the liquidity of risk assets.

Secondly, Trump's remarks have sparked risk-averse sentiment. Trump is considering declaring a "national economic emergency" to pave the way for significant tariff increases. He has also made a series of extreme statements that have drawn criticism from multiple countries, increasing uncertainty in the global economy.

The third is institutional capital outflow. On January 8, there was a significant net outflow of funds from both the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States.

Finally, there is news that Silk Road Bitcoin is about to be sold. The U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to liquidate 69,370 bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $6.5 billion. This has intensified market panic.

Nevertheless, there are still favorable factors in the market outlook:

First, there has been a turnaround in the lawsuit between Coinbase and the SEC. The court has granted Coinbase's motion to appeal, which may increase the likelihood of the SEC's lawsuit being dismissed.

Secondly, the new CFTC chairman candidate may be friendly to cryptocurrencies. The Trump team is looking for candidates favorable to the development of the crypto industry.

Large investors remain positive. Data shows that small holders have significantly reduced their holdings, while large holders are actually increasing theirs. Institutional investors have been accumulating when the price of Bitcoin is below $95,000.

Regarding the impact of the Silk Road Bitcoin sale, experts believe there is no need for excessive concern. The sale process requires several months of approval and may take place through over-the-counter trading. Even if all are brought to market, it would only take about a week to digest with the current liquidity.

Overall, although market sentiment has declined, the possibility of a significant drop in the crypto market is low due to support from institutions and large holders. The support level for Bitcoin remains around $95,000, and the price may fluctuate around $90,000, but the probability of falling to $70,000-$80,000 is relatively small.

Apart from focusing on Trump's policies, the next market spotlight is the U.S. non-farm payroll report for December, which will be released this Friday. Employment data is an important reference for the Federal Reserve's policy and may influence market trends. Currently, it is expected that 153,000 new jobs were added in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.