Inflation cooling and regulatory thaw: A key turning point for the US macroeconomy and encryption policy.

This week, decisive signals emerged from both the U.S. economy and the regulation of digital assets. The latest CPI data for May was unexpectedly mild, significantly alleviating market concerns about inflation stickiness and opening up possibilities for a shift in The Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

At the same time, the GENIUS Act has achieved a procedural breakthrough in the U.S. Senate, indicating that cryptocurrency regulation in the United States is moving from ambiguity to clarity.

Economic signals: CPI data falls short of expectations, interest rate cut expectations heat up.

According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on June 11, the CPI in May 2025 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, which is lower than the market expectation of 2.5%, and slightly higher than April's 2.3%; the seasonally adjusted monthly CPI recorded only 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%. More notably, the core CPI (excluding the volatility of food and energy prices) performed particularly mildly, rising 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and recording 2.8% year-on-year, also below the market expectation of 2.9%. This marks the fourth consecutive month that the core CPI has fallen short of expectations, indicating that inflationary stickiness is gradually diminishing.

The market reacted quickly and significantly to this data. After the data was released, S&P 500 futures turned from a slight decline to an increase of 0.5%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries slightly fell to 4.1%. On platform X, analysts generally believe that the moderate CPI data provides a basis for The Federal Reserve (FED) to further loosen monetary policy. A well-known economist posted on X saying, "The May CPI data indicates that inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, and the probability of a rate cut by the FED in September has risen to 85%." Although the Trump administration's new tariff policy has raised market concerns about upward inflation, the May data indicates that the short-term impact of tariffs has not yet materialized. Food prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month, with egg prices dropping by 12.7% due to the fading impact of avian influenza, becoming a key factor in lowering the CPI.

However, the core CPI annualized rate of 2.8% is still higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target, indicating that price pressures have not completely dissipated. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve may rely more on indicators such as core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) in the coming months to decide whether to accelerate interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate at the July meeting, but the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has significantly increased.

In response, Trump posted on social media: "CPI data has just been released, and the data is very good! The Federal Reserve (FED) should cut interest rates by a full 1%. This will significantly reduce the interest payments on maturing debt. This is very important!"

Regulatory Progress: The "GENIUS Act" moves towards the final vote, and the compliance framework for stablecoins takes shape.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate has made a breakthrough in cryptocurrency regulation. On June 11, the Senate passed the procedural motion (cloture) for the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" by a vote of 68 to 30, officially initiating full chamber debate and paving the way for a final vote as early as June 16. The voting results show a rare bipartisan consensus on the issue of stablecoin regulation, with 16 Democratic senators crossing party lines to vote in favor, highlighting the broad support for the bill.

The "GENIUS Act" aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for dollar-pegged payment stablecoins, clarifying their legal status and excluding their classification as securities or commodities.

Supporters of the bill believe that this framework will inject certainty into the stablecoin market, promoting its widespread use in the payment sector while curbing potential financial risks. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown stated on X: "The GENIUS Act will ensure the healthy development of the stablecoin market under strong regulation, avoiding a repeat of the 2022 algorithmic stablecoin collapse."

Opponents are concerned that the strict requirements on issuers in the bill may limit the innovation space for small and medium-sized enterprises and further tilt market dominance towards large financial institutions.

A user commented: "If the bill passes, USDC and USDT will usher in a new era of compliance, but smaller players may be squeezed out of the market." Analysts expect that if the bill passes smoothly, the stablecoin market may see a new round of consolidation in early 2026, with compliant issuers gaining more trust from institutional investors.

Analysis and Outlook: Market Prospects Under Dual-Line Advancement

The easing of inflation data and the clarification of stablecoin regulation together paint an optimistic picture of coexistence with order. The favorable macroeconomic factors are expected to inject liquidity and confidence into risk markets, including cryptocurrency assets. If the GENIUS Act is ultimately passed, it will signify the United States seizing the initiative in the global digital asset regulatory race, providing strong compliance backing for the global expansion of US dollar stablecoins, and may have far-reaching effects on the EU's MiCA regulations and the regulatory paths of other major economies.

However, the outlook is not entirely smooth. Whether the short-term decline in inflation can evolve into a long-term trend still depends on the uncertainties of the global supply chain and geopolitical factors. At the same time, before the final vote on the GENIUS Act, there may still be fierce negotiations over details such as state-level licensing and consumer protection. For investors, this means that opportunities and uncertainties coexist, and closely monitoring the policy signals from The Federal Reserve (FED) and legislative dynamics in Washington will be key to grasping the market pulse in the coming months.