Bitcoin Continues to Rise but Begins to Show Warning Signs

Last week, Bitcoin continued to maintain an impressive bullish momentum, despite some warning signals starting to emerge beneath the surface of the market. While the flow of funds from institutions remains stable, activity from retail investors is slowing down. This suggests that the market may be entering a distribution phase – a time when large investors gradually take control. Wallet Address Activity Decreases – Are Individual Investors Pulling Back? One of the most notable figures from the past week is the decline in the number of active Bitcoin wallets. Specifically, the number of active wallet addresses has decreased by 6.56%, from 8.62 million to around 8.06 million wallets. This decline is often a sign that retail investors are taking profits or temporarily withdrawing from short-term trades. This is a classic manifestation of the consolidation phase, when smart money begins to act quietly. Slight Decrease in Hashrate – Network Remains Stable The hashrate of the Bitcoin network – a metric that measures the processing power of the entire network – has slightly decreased by 1.4%, from 864.8 EH/s to 852.7 EH/s. However, according to experts, this adjustment is completely normal and may be related to regular maintenance or a restructuring of the mining operations of miners. It is important that the Bitcoin network maintains a high level of security, with no signs of serious risk for long-term investors. Market Capitalization Rises Strongly as BTC Sets New Local Peak The price of Bitcoin has increased by 3.48% over the week, reaching a new high of nearly $107,839.92. This bullish trend has contributed to pushing the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies to over 2.14 trillion USD, equivalent to a 4.5% increase during the same period. Notably, this increase is primarily driven by inflows from large institutions, despite a decline in activity from retail investors. Market Momentum Slows Down, But The Cycle Peak Hasn't Arrived Yet Market cycle indicators – including the Bitcoin Peak Signal, which accurately predicted the peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 – currently still do not show any signals that the market has peaked. Other important metrics such as MRPI (Current price to average buy-in price ratio of long-term holders) and VDD Ratio (monitoring the movement of old BTC) are also increasing but have not yet reached historical peaks. This indicates that the market still has room for growth in this cycle, although investors should start to act more cautiously. Long-Term Forecast: Fall 2025 Still the Target According to the Bitcoin halving cycle model, the actual peak of this cycle is likely to occur in the fall of 2025. Before that time, the market may witness some significant corrections, but the overall structure of the bullish cycle is still being maintained. Currently, the price to closely monitor is $107,000. If Bitcoin can hold above this level, the bullish trend will continue to be reinforced. However, if the price falls below this level, the market may enter a deeper correction before institutional money returns.