Why Markets $SPY $Q Stubbornly Refuse to Fall, The Invisible Hand! 👇

Markets stubbornly refuse to collapse. Oil is rising, US10Y is rising, DXY is rising, Hormuz is not fully open. Despite so much geopolitical and macro pressure, the doom callers keep drawing collapse scenarios, but the market is not fully surrendering to that. So why? Isn’t it strange?
Because the real fuel of markets is not news, it is liquidity.
Let me tell you what is happening behind the curtain, because you cannot find the truth anywhere else!
There is no real work behind the posts of the doom callers.
The Fed ended balance sheet reduction (QT) as of December 1 and immediately after that started Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) on December 10. The purpose is not to provide economic stimulus; it is to prevent repo market rates from getting out of control and to keep reserves in the banking system at ample levels. The technical name may be different, but the result is clear: the Fed’s balance sheet has started growing again. This is not classic QE.
But if the balance sheet is growing and system liquidity is increasing, from the market’s perspective, its effect creates QE like support.
The Fed does not call this QE because the official purpose is not economic expansion, but protecting market functioning. However, in practice, through T-bill purchases, around $40B in monthly net liquidity support is being provided to the system, and this prevents possible stress in the repo market from growing.
The second leg of the story is the Treasury side.
The Treasury’s buyback program is active. In other words, the Treasury supports the functioning of the bond market by buying back illiquid bonds it issued in the past. Technically, this is not QE because it is done by the Treasury, not the central bank. But in terms of market impact, it creates a liquidity friendly result. Here too, an additional support of around $12-13B per month is formed.
So when the Fed and Treasury are considered together, there is more than $52B in monthly liquidity injection into the system. This means massive support of more than $600B on an annual basis.
That is why the market does not collapse easily.
Oil can rise. Bond yields can rise. DXY can strengthen. Geopolitical risks can increase. But as long as the system is not completely left without water, the market finds buyers again on every dip.
Because the market prices liquidity. That is the real issue.
Sometimes the market does not care about the economy, it cares about whether the tap is open. Right now, the tap is not only open, it is flowing heavily. And that is why, even though disaster scenarios are constantly discussed, the market still finds a way to go higher.
I do not ask for things like this, but I would appreciate it if you repost and like it. Otherwise, I only make this kind of post on Patreon-X Subscribe. If you create motivation for me, I can continue.
I can say almost no one knows the main metric behind $BTC either. But I cannot share that here either.
Thank you in advance.
Let me say this openly as well. Unfortunately, I cannot find the support I am looking for on X. People say if they get 500-1,000 likes, they will do this or that, but what they do is not really important. If I cannot find the support I am looking for again, this may be my last post on critical topics. Because it makes me feel like I am rowing for nothing