Halving and quantitative easing (QE) impact on the crypto market

First of all, the BTC Halving leads to four years of bull and bear markets, and in this cycle, opinions have become inconsistent. Let's first look for patterns in history. The Halving determines the supply rhythm, which is an endogenous factor, while the expansion of the balance sheet determines liquidity and risk appetite, which are exogenous factors. When the time windows of the two overlap, it amplifies the bull market's magnitude — the most typical example is the 2020–2021 cycle.

Every round of the crypto market bull market occurs about 6–12 months after Halving, which corresponds exactly to the liquidity improvement or expansion cycle. When these two factors resonate, it creates that kind of bubble-like upward movement.

Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion (QE) → Increase in base currency → Valuation uplift of risk assets → Crypto assets become beneficiaries of high Beta risk exposure.
This process often has a lag of 3–6 months in transmission, so a double main wave of rising will form both internally and externally in the crypto market.
Halving has determined the supply boundary, and the expansion of the balance sheet has provided capital catalysis.
interest rate cuts
Looking at the characteristics of this round, as shown in the figure below, if the historical rhythm continues, the main upward wave of Bitcoin is likely to occur in 2026—just corresponding to the starting point of the Federal Reserve's expansionary balance sheet cycle.

Halving cycle determines "whether there is a bull market", while the expansion cycle decides "how strong the bull market can be". When both overlap, the market's explosive power is the strongest. Therefore, once the expansion begins in 2026 - it will be the core liquidity fuel of the fourth round of Bitcoin super bull market.
Summary: Next year will see a big bull market, what we've seen before are just the small bulls in the crypto market.