3月10日消息，在加密市场持续波动之际，比特币下一阶段走势再次成为交易员关注焦点。加密分析师 Chetan Gurjar 近期回顾了一套曾成功识别2022年熊市底部的分析框架，并指出该模型当前可能再次对比特币价格结构产生重要参考价值。
Gurjar表示，他在上一轮熊市期间通过长期斐波那契结构水平来判断市场底部区域。当时比特币价格多次在关键技术区间附近波动，最终几乎精准地在该水平附近完成筑底，并随后开启反弹行情。这一方法并不依赖短期技术指标，而是侧重观察比特币在长期周期中的价格反应。
该模型的核心逻辑在于市场结构重复性。当价格在多个周期内持续围绕同一关键水平震荡时，该区域往往会成为极具意义的结构点。在此前的周期中，比特币曾多次在这一价格带附近遇到强劲阻力，从而形成明显的技术天花板。
不过，市场结构的关键变化往往出现在阻力被突破之后。Gurjar指出，当比特币价格成功突破长期阻力位，并在更高时间框架中持续运行在其上方时，该区域通常会从阻力转变为新的支撑位。这种“阻力转支撑”的结构转换，往往被技术分析师视为趋势延续的重要信号。
在2022年熊市结束阶段，这一转变帮助确认了市场底部的形成。如今，比特币价格再次在类似的长期结构区间上方运行，使部分交易员开始重新评估当前市场周期。
分析人士认为，如果这一长期结构继续有效，比特币未来可能在该关键支撑区域附近形成新的周期底部。与此同时，宏观资金流动、机构配置以及市场情绪等因素也将共同影响价格走势。
尽管技术模型无法保证未来价格完全重复历史，但许多交易员仍将长期斐波那契结构视为判断比特币市场周期的重要工具。随着市场进入新的波动阶段，关键支撑区域能否继续守住，也成为观察下一轮行情的重要信号。
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