UBS and Goldman Sachs forecast gold prices to reach $5,000 in March. Why are investment banks collectively bullish on gold?

Amid the backdrop of global geopolitical tensions, several international investment banks and asset management firms, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, have recently revised their gold price forecasts for 2026 upward, with expectations of reaching $5,000 per ounce as early as March this year. Analysts point out that this surge reflects not only fiscal pressures faced by various countries but also the current turbulence in political and economic situations.

Will gold prices continue to rise in 2026? What is UBS’s reasoning?

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports that UBS Wealth Management (UBS Wealth Management) states that gold will remain the core driver of precious metal value appreciation in 2026.

Analysts forecast that gold prices will rise to around $5,000 per ounce by the end of the first quarter, and this level will be maintained into the fall. By the end of 2026, gold prices are expected to slightly retreat to approximately $4,800 per ounce:

This forecast is based on a sustained upward trend and a strong reaction to recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military actions against Venezuela’s president, turmoil in U.S.-Iran relations, and high fiscal deficits.

He added, “Other factors such as the approaching U.S. midterm elections could temporarily push gold prices to $5,500.”

Wall Street remains optimistic: Gold could reach $5,000 by the end of the first quarter

In addition to UBS, major banks such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase have also revised their gold price forecasts upward. Most institutions set their baseline target range for 2026 between $4,600 and $5,000 per ounce, with optimistic scenarios reaching $5,200 to $5,500.

Source: Discovery Alert

The differences among these forecasts mainly reflect varying assessments of the pace of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks. Overall, the consensus is that gold will trend higher in the medium to long term, rather than being based on a single institution’s assumptions.

(Bloomberg 2026 Outlook Report: US Stocks Continue to Rise, Gold Reaches 5000)

Why has gold been rising continuously? Fiscal deficits and geopolitical risks are key factors

Analysts point out that there are two main drivers behind the gold price from last year to this year. First, the “expansion of fiscal deficits and worsening inflation” in the U.S. and major economies, the long-term low real interest rates which reduce holding costs, and central banks increasing gold holdings to mitigate foreign exchange and sanctions risks.

Under these reasons, gold has been incorporated into medium- to long-term asset allocation frameworks as an important hedge against currency and debt risks.

Additionally, the “geopolitical risks” that are difficult to quantify with precise pricing models are also a major factor. Historical experience shows that during military conflicts, trade wars, or major political instability, precious metals markets often experience a 15% to 25% risk premium, with extreme cases reaching 40%.

As international political, economic, and trade relations become more tense, central banks and sovereign funds tend to preemptively allocate into gold, driving increased demand.

(The Key Player Driving the 2025 Gold Price Rise Is Actually Him!)

Risks to the Bright Outlook: Volatility Remains Normal

Despite the generally optimistic outlook, analysts also warn that precious metals remain high-volatility assets. Short-term inflation data, changes in interest rate expectations, or easing geopolitical tensions could trigger price corrections or fluctuations. Diversification in investment portfolios is still recommended.

In a global environment characterized by high debt, low interest rates, and political-economic uncertainties, gold in 2026 is likely to continue playing a key role as a safe-haven asset.

This article, originally published on Chain News ABMedia, explains why UBS and Goldman Sachs collectively forecast gold reaching $5,000 in March.