Unstoppable? Analyzing the four key factors driving Bitcoin prices toward 2026

Despite the overall accommodative macro environment, Bitcoin has not experienced a “Christmas rally” this year. Since reaching a record high in October, BTC prices have retreated by approximately 30%, significantly underperforming traditional risk assets such as stocks and gold. Analysts believe that the issue is not a deterioration in fundamentals but rather multiple structural factors exerting short-term pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

First, there is the persistent “mechanical” supply pressure. Several analysts point out that early investors holding Bitcoin long-term are choosing to take partial profits near the key psychological threshold of $100,000. Such selling behavior is not sensitive to price, and even if Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain robust, it can create sustained selling pressure in phases, dragging down BTC’s trend.

Second, market reliance on the “four-year cycle” theory of Bitcoin. The halving events have long been regarded as the core driver of Bitcoin’s bull-bear transitions. However, because this pattern is widely recognized, an increasing number of traders choose to pre-position or take profits early, which weakens the upward momentum after halving. Although industry insiders, including institutional analysts and exchange executives, believe that institutionalization and regulatory maturity are diminishing the cycle effect, this trading mindset still influences market behavior in the short term.

The third factor stems from changes in macro risk appetite. In the second half of 2025, volatility in AI-related assets intensified, prompting the market to reassess valuation and commercialization prospects, putting overall pressure on risk assets. Under expectations of liquidity tightening, Bitcoin, as a highly liquid asset sensitive to risk sentiment, naturally finds it difficult to remain unaffected.

Finally, the $19 billion liquidation event in October has had a profound impact on market structure. Although prices recovered relatively quickly on the surface, liquidity providers and market makers continued to reduce risk exposure afterward, causing Bitcoin to face latent selling pressure until the end of the year.

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. In a global financial system centered on debt expansion and fiat currency credit, the trend of central bank balance sheet expansion and liquidity injection is difficult to reverse. As a scarce asset, Bitcoin is still viewed as an important hedge against currency devaluation and systemic risks, and this long-term logic remains unchanged.