Gate on-chain observation (November 12): Hyperliquid's open contracts decreased by $1.53 billion in a single month; ETH whales accumulated over $1.3 billion against the trend

On November 12, the cryptocurrency market displayed a clear divergence pattern: professional traders are retreating while institutional funds are accumulating deeply. The Hyperliquid platform saw a sharp monthly decrease of $1.53 billion in open contracts. Several top traders, including the “100% win rate whale,” chose to close positions and exit, with monthly losses exceeding $15 million each. In stark contrast, Ethereum whales continued their aggressive accumulation, with a well-known address holding over $1.3 billion in ETH. Newly created wallets also received 1130 BTC from FalconX, worth approximately $116 million. The core market contradiction now lies in the intense collision between short-term speculative sentiment waning and long-term institutional building confidence.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

On-chain signals for Bitcoin show complex cues of institutional strategic deployment and some whales exiting. Regarding macro and institutional flows, a newly created wallet received 1130 BTC from FalconX, valued at about $116 million, indicating orderly off-market capital inflow via institutional channels. Meanwhile, a whale address dormant for two months withdrew 100 BTC from a mainstream CEX, worth $10.32 million. Although this address still holds 300 BTC at a loss of $2.4 million, its contrarian accumulation suggests some long-term investors remain confident about the future.

In the derivatives market, volatility has led to significant liquidation. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, total global liquidation reached $479 million, with Bitcoin longs liquidated for $99.5 million and shorts for $18.11 million. This double-sided liquidation has prompted some well-known traders to temporarily step back. For example, the “BTC OG Insider Whale” closed a $41.2 million ETH long position on November 11 and withdrew funds to mainstream CEXs, indicating caution about short-term market shifts.

Smart money movements are notably polarized. The whale Owen Gunden, holding 10,000 BTC, deposited another 700 BTC (worth $7.32 million) into a CEX, continuing recent profit-taking. Meanwhile, a whale address holding coins for four months transferred 500 BTC (worth $5.28 million) into Gate exchange. If sold, it would face a loss of $685,000, reflecting some investors choosing to cut losses despite losses.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

Ethereum on-chain activity shows a stark contrast: whales remain steadfast in accumulation while retail investors panic and exit. Regarding whale behavior, the “Former Borrower of 66,000 ETH for Shorting” continues its epic long strategy, withdrawing 28,262 ETH (about $9.86 million) from a major CEX, bringing its total ETH holdings to 355,164 ETH, valued at $1.21 billion. Since November 2, this address has accumulated 392,961 ETH, worth $1.38 billion, averaging over $2 million daily.

Institutional inflows are also evident. A new wallet received 24,007 ETH from Galaxy Digital OTC, worth $82 million, likely belonging to the top ETH holder, Bitmine. Additionally, address 0x9992 borrowed $10 million USDC on Aave to buy 2,909 ETH, and has deposited 83,816 ETH (about $2.886 billion) on Aave while borrowing $128.89 million stablecoins. This leveraged long position indicates strong professional optimism for ETH’s outlook.

Long-term holders are active as well. The “Insider Whale 1011” closed a 5x leveraged ETH long, realizing a profit of $2.86 million. Conversely, the banded whale 0x69b, after nearly a month of holding, sold 1,300 ETH at a loss of $59,700, with remaining 1,355 ETH still at a loss of $4,870. This highlights retail investors’ vulnerability amid volatility.

In terms of ecosystem activity, derivatives market activity has cooled. Data shows ETH open interest across all contracts decreased by 6.55% in 24 hours, totaling $38.51 billion. Major CEXs saw outflows, indicating a temporary risk-off sentiment.

3. Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

Popular Coins

ASTER has become a battleground for bulls and bears. Two addresses marked as Abraxas Capital (0x5b5 and 0xb83) continue to increase their long positions, holding a combined $8.16 million in ASTER, with average costs of $0.99 and $1.09, currently with $750,000 in unrealized gains. They are the largest ASTER longs on Hyperliquid. Notably, this institution holds short positions in 11 other tokens, totaling about $430 million in notional value, making it the largest short position on Hyperliquid.

Countering this, the “3x Short ASTER” whale (0x9ee) remains the top short holder, with $4.89 million in open positions at an average price of $1.20. Its unrealized profit has decreased from $700,000 to $292,000. The combined long and short positions exceed $57 million, meaning any breakout could trigger large liquidations.

Additionally, the “ThisWillMakeYouLoveAgain” whale, which previously made over $36 million profit, continues to increase its ASTER holdings, buying 8.41 million ASTER (worth $814,000) at an average of $0.97 since November 4, with an unrealized profit of $110,000. This suggests that capital is shifting from meme tokens to small-cap projects with fundamentals.

DeFi and RWA Sectors

Paradigm’s large stake in HYPE has attracted attention. The firm staked 14.7 million HYPE tokens (about $581 million) and transferred 3.02 million HYPE (about $119 million) to HyperEVM. Most staked HYPE is managed by Anchorage via Figment nodes, with 1.41 million HYPE ($5.59 million) remaining un-staked for flexible operations.

Similarly, institutional accumulation is evident in LINK. Two new wallets withdrew 957,000 LINK (about $1.58 million) from major CEXs, accumulating 234,000 LINK (about $382,000) over four days, reflecting ongoing confidence in oracle projects.

Meme Coins and Specific Projects

Under tightening regulations, stablecoin supply continues to grow. Circle has issued an additional $500 million USDC, and since the market crash on October 11, Tether and Circle have collectively issued $12.25 billion in stablecoins. This surge in stablecoin supply generally indicates abundant market liquidity, setting the stage for potential rebounds.

4. Market Overview and Trend Outlook

Overall, the market is at a historic crossroads: short-term speculative sentiment is waning, while long-term capital is confidently deploying. The collective liquidation by top traders reflects volatility exceeding their strategies’ capacity, whereas institutional accumulation underscores confidence in the long-term value of cryptocurrencies. Ethereum’s position as the preferred institutional asset further consolidates, with a single address holding over $1.3 billion—rare in traditional finance.

Looking ahead 1-3 days, key levels to watch include: whether Bitcoin can hold support at $103,000, which coincides with the 50-week simple moving average; if it falls below, the next support could be around $86,000. For ETH, maintaining above $3,400 is crucial, with resistance near $3,700; a breakout could test the yearly high. The outcome of the ASTER long-short battle will influence sentiment in small-cap tokens. The ongoing stablecoin issuance and liquidity effects may serve as catalysts for the next upward move.

Investors should monitor the end of the US government shutdown, SEC and CFTC regulatory developments, and capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum and quality altcoins, as these signals will guide position adjustments.

5. Conclusion

On-chain data vividly depict a strategic divergence among market participants: top traders are forced to exit amid volatility, while institutional capital remains steady in accumulation. This divergence reflects the ongoing narrative collision across different timeframes—short-term traders are paralyzed by uncertainty, while long-term allocators focus on structural opportunities. During this transition from leverage liquidation to institutional building, the market is undergoing a painful evolution from speculation-driven to value discovery. History suggests that when whales accumulate greedily amid fear, a new trend often brews. Only by piercing through the fog of short-term fluctuations can investors seize these underlying opportunities.