#参与创作者认证计划月领$10,000 #Gate跨所交易平台CrossEx上线 #美联储如期降息25基点 Bitcoin was stuck around the 110,000 mark during the early hours of Monday, repeatedly oscillating. After several attempts to break through the resistance at this level, it failed to form an effective breakout. When pulling back, it also received some support, showing no obvious signs of a breakdown. This constrained movement reflects the increasing divergence between bulls and bears at this critical price point—while the bulls are willing to push the price upward, they lack sufficient capital momentum to support it; the bears are trying to suppress the price downward but are also struggling to break the existing support line, resulting in a more pronounced stalemate. The short-term support is focused on the 108,500 line below, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of this support and the 111,500 high during the day. The four-hour chart frequently shows wicks, indicating that the bears have significantly diminished their momentum after a prolonged slow decline, combined with strong support levels, repeatedly forming a bottom without breaking down, suggesting that the market is likely to experience a bullish adjustment.

Ultimate victory in the encryption world! After the SEC's disastrous defeat in the lawsuit against Ripple, the XRP ETF will ring the death knell for traditional regulation. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, predicts that the first spot XRP ETF will be launched within the next two weeks. This expectation is mainly based on the recent resolution of the legal dispute between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as well as the optimistic sentiment in the market regarding changes in the encryption regulatory environment. 1. Background and Market Significance of the Prediction Nate Geraci pointed out that the SEC's five-year lawsuit against Ripple concluded three months ago, which cleared a key obstacle for the approval of a spot XRP ETF. He believes that the launch of such an ETF would signify a fundamental shift in the SEC's tough regulatory stance on encryption, marking the "last bell toll for anti-encryption regulators." This prediction is closely related to market dynamics: after the SEC dropped its appeal against Ripple in March 2025, the price of XRP rose by 10%, while Polymarket data shows that the market's expected probability for the approval of an XRP ETF within 2025 has risen to 87%. 2. Regulatory Developments and Institutional Trends The resolution of the legal dispute between the SEC and Ripple is a core driving force. In July 2023, the court ruled that XRP itself does not constitute a security (only direct sales by institutions may violate the law), and the SEC officially abandoned its appeal in 2025, clarifying the non-security nature of XRP. This result prompted several institutions to submit applications, including Bitwise and WisdomTree, which have already registered XRP ETF products. Market analysis suggests that large asset management companies like BlackRock may follow suit, further accelerating the approval process. 3. Potential Impact of XRP ETF If the spot XRP ETF is approved, investors can indirectly invest in XRP through traditional stock accounts without the need to directly manage the tokens, lowering the operational threshold. Compared with Bitcoin ETF, XRP ETF faces higher volatility and regulatory residual risks, but its practical value in the field of cross-border payments may attract institutional funds. In addition, the expansion of the Ripple ecosystem (such as the launch of RLUSD stablecoin) may also enhance the long-term value support for XRP. 4. Future Challenges and Uncertainties Although the outlook is optimistic, the SEC may impose additional requirements on the ETF structure, such as strict custody arrangements or liquidity guarantees. Meanwhile, XRP still needs to deal with global regulatory differences, as some countries may still regard it as a security. The market needs to pay attention to the SEC's final approval details and the scale of the first batch of ETFs, as these factors will directly influence the price trends of XRP and market acceptance.

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