Recently, many people have been asking: the Fed cut rates, so why hasn't Bitcoin taken off yet? Actually, it's not that simple.
On the surface it looks like a rate cut, but the real interest rate hasn't actually loosened at all. After stripping out inflation, real rates remain elevated, and the suppressive force on risk assets is still there. It's like a store having a sale, but the product cost hasn't dropped, so consumers' purchasing power hasn't actually increased.
Looking deeper, US Treasury issuance never stops—it's like a black hole swallowing up market liquidity. The money in institutions' hands is locked up in government bonds, so naturally the crypto asset side is starved for capital. The reason gold has been rising lately is because it got on the train early.
The most painful part is the financial intermediation side—the banking system hasn't fully recovered its transmission capacity, and the liquidity transmission chain from the Fed to the market has been broken. It's like a hotpot restaurant owner cutting costs, but there's no one in the kitchen and no staff on the floor—no matter how cheap it is, the business can't be saved.
So the rate cut itself is real, but how much actual liquidity it can release—that's the key question. Whether BTC can take off depends on how fiscal policy pivots next, plus those sudden geopolitical events. The signals from next week's FOMC meeting are worth watching closely; this could be a turning point. Don't just look at rate numbers—pay attention to where the real money in the market is actually coming from.
Recently, many people have been asking: the Fed cut rates, so why hasn't Bitcoin taken off yet? Actually, it's not that simple.
On the surface it looks like a rate cut, but the real interest rate hasn't actually loosened at all. After stripping out inflation, real rates remain elevated, and the suppressive force on risk assets is still there. It's like a store having a sale, but the product cost hasn't dropped, so consumers' purchasing power hasn't actually increased.
Looking deeper, US Treasury issuance never stops—it's like a black hole swallowing up market liquidity. The money in institutions' hands is locked up in government bonds, so naturally the crypto asset side is starved for capital. The reason gold has been rising lately is because it got on the train early.
The most painful part is the financial intermediation side—the banking system hasn't fully recovered its transmission capacity, and the liquidity transmission chain from the Fed to the market has been broken. It's like a hotpot restaurant owner cutting costs, but there's no one in the kitchen and no staff on the floor—no matter how cheap it is, the business can't be saved.
So the rate cut itself is real, but how much actual liquidity it can release—that's the key question. Whether BTC can take off depends on how fiscal policy pivots next, plus those sudden geopolitical events. The signals from next week's FOMC meeting are worth watching closely; this could be a turning point. Don't just look at rate numbers—pay attention to where the real money in the market is actually coming from.