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In July 2024, former U.S. President Donald Trump threw out a 'crypto nuclear bomb' at a campaign rally - announcing that if elected, he would push to establish a national <a href="/ja/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> strategic reserve and promised to legislate to clarify Bitcoin's 'non-security commodity' status. This policy declaration instantly caused a massive shock in the global financial markets: [Bitcoin price](/price/bitcoin-btc) A single-day 23% surge, breaking through the $70,000 mark, with the total market value of the <a href="/ja/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a> increasing by $300 billion in a single week.

On March 7, 2025, White House AI and cryptocurrency czar David Sacks posted on social media, 'Just a few minutes ago, President Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The reserve will be capitalized with Bitcoins confiscated by the federal government in criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings, meaning no taxpayer money will be spent.'

![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1741334501davidsacks.png)

It is estimated that the US government owns about 200,000 bitcoins; however, a full audit has never been conducted. An executive order requires a comprehensive account of the federal government's digital asset holdings. The US will not sell any bitcoins stored in reserves. It will be retained as a store of value.

The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce are authorized to develop a budget-neutral (budget not increasing) strategy to acquire more Bitcoin without increasing the burden on taxpayers.
In addition, the executive order also establishes the U.S. Digital Asset Reserve, which includes digital assets other than Bitcoin seized in criminal or civil litigation. The government will not acquire additional assets for the reserve assets other than those obtained through seizure. The purpose of the reserve is to manage government digital assets under the leadership of the Department of the Treasury.

In the hundred-year changes of traditional finance and digital currency, what does Trump's 'nationalization of BTC' strategy really mean? Where will Bitcoin go in 2025?

## Bulls and bears: Differentiation of price prediction models for 2025

### Bull market faction: $200,000 is not a dream

- Supply and Demand Reconstruction Theory: If the United States purchases 500,000 BTC as planned, it will directly absorb 3% of the market's circulation. Considering that the annual output of Bitcoin is only 165,000 after halving, the supply-demand gap may widen to historical peaks. Bloomberg Intelligence's model shows that supply-demand imbalance in 2025 may drive prices to exceed $180,000.
- Fiat Depreciation Hedge: Goldman Sachs predicts that if the Federal Reserve restarts a rate-cutting cycle due to debt pressure, the purchasing power of the US dollar may drop another 15% by 2025, and Bitcoin could become a new type of "inflation hedge tool," replicating the trend of gold in the 1970s.
- Geopolitical premium: Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East have secretly increased their holdings of BTC. If major powers such as the United States, Russia, and China engage in a 'digital gold race,' the market value of Bitcoin is expected to reach 20% of gold by 2025 (corresponding to a unit price of $220,000).

### Rationalists: Beware of Policy Implementation Risks

- Legislative uncertainty: There are currently 42 members of Congress in the United States openly opposing the legalization of cryptocurrency.
- Technical selling pressure: On-chain data shows that there are dormant Bitcoin addresses worth $24 billion near $70,000, and historical profit-taking may trigger a phase of pullback.
- Regulatory arbitrage comes to an end: If Bitcoin is officially defined as a "commodity", CFTC may strengthen the regulation of derivative trading to suppress market leverage (the current perpetual contract funding rate has reached 0.15% per day, implying high risk).

## Technical signals: Three key indicators point to a super cycle

1. Metcalfe's Valuation Curve: The number of active Bitcoin addresses per month has exceeded 50 million. According to Metcalfe's Law (value ∝ square of the number of users), the fair value has been revised up to $93,000.
2. Inventory-to-<a href="/ja/price/flow-flow" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Flow</a> Model: After the halving in 2024, the Bitcoin S/F ratio (64) officially surpasses gold (58). According to PlanB's prediction model, the baseline price will rise to $100,000 in 2025.
3. Whale concentration: Addresses holding 1000+ BTC account for 35% of the total, approaching the level of the bull market in 2021, indicating that institutional accumulation is entering an accelerated phase.

## Bitcoin in Historical Coordinates: From Marginal Asset to Strategic Reserve

Looking back to the birth of Bitcoin in the Genesis Block in 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto may not have anticipated that this peer-to-peer electronic cash would be involved in the great power game. Trump's "BTC strategic reserve" proposal is essentially an attempt to correct the flaws in the US dollar hegemony system—when the $31 trillion national debt is at its limit and the SWIFT system faces challenges from multipolarity, Bitcoin's scarcity and neutrality just happen to provide a new type of value anchor.

Renowned KOL in the crypto community, Jesse Powell, bluntly stated: 'This marks Bitcoin's formal entry into the national power game. By 2025, we will witness its evolution from 'digital gold' to 'strategic weapon.' GreyScale Investment's report gives a more aggressive prediction: if the United States opens a national holding channel, by the end of 2025, Bitcoin may account for 1% of global foreign exchange reserves, driving the unit price to $250,000.

## BTC Future Outlook

2025年的 [Bitcoin price prediction](/price-prediction/bitcoin-btc) It has long surpassed the realm of mere technical analysis. When sovereign nations hold large strategic reserves of BTC, when presidential campaign platforms include cryptocurrency policies, this experiment has evolved into a fundamental questioning of the nature of the modern monetary system. Whether the final price settles at $100,000 or $200,000, the history being written by Bitcoin is reminding us: in the collision between fiat currency order and cryptographic consensus, a storm is brewing to reshape the global wealth distribution rules.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author: **Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. Investment involves risks and users need to make careful decisions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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BTC 2025 Price Prediction: Trump Announces BTC Strategic Reserve Plan, What’s Next for the Market?