The current synchronized rebound in the US stock market and the crypto market is essentially a technical correction driven by multiple short-term forces, rather than a new trend reversal.

1. The US stock market's strong rebound but with a narrow structure

In April, the US stock market saw a strong rally, with the S&P 500 rising 10.5%, marking the best monthly performance since 2020, and the Nasdaq surging 15.3%. The core engines were the earnings beats of many large tech companies and the continued expansion of AI infrastructure investments. The S&P 500 returned to the 7,230-point historical high. However, the VIX fear index remains somewhat elevated compared to its low levels this year, and market breadth (the proportion of advancing stocks) remains poor. The rebound is highly concentrated, and the overall bull market foundation is not solid. Meanwhile, the Middle East situation has caused oil supply disruptions (the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, affecting about 20% of global oil supply). In April, the PCE price index soared to 4.3%, reigniting inflation pressures. The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates has dropped to around 15% or even less, and liquidity conditions are actually tight. Every rise in the US stock market is wrapped in structural fragility.

2. The "structural contradictions" in the crypto market rebound

The upward movement in crypto markets appears even more fragile. Bitcoin rebounded from a $60k bottom to $80.5k, but three major contradictions exist:

1. Leverage-driven rather than spot buying: Derivatives trading volume on major exchanges accounts for as high as 87.77%. The rise driven by perpetual contracts means prices are supported on "borrowed bullets." If prices break below key support levels, it could trigger a chain of long liquidations.
2. Continuous decline in spot demand: Although on May 1, net ETF inflows reached $630 million in a single day, overall spot ETF trading volume decreased by 13.45%. This data contradiction suggests that inflows may be more tactical replenishments rather than long-term allocations.
3. Bitcoin dominance rising to 61%: Altcoins (ETH, SOL, XRP, etc.) lag in gains or even stagnate. The market shows typical "safe-haven" features—funds retreating into the industry’s "largest and most stable" assets, not a sign of a broad bull market.

Comparison dimensions | US stocks | Crypto market
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Main drivers | Tech giants' earnings + AI expectations | Leverage derivatives + ETF short-term funds
Structural features | Concentrated leadership, narrow breadth | Leverage-driven, spot demand shrinking
External environment | High inflation, unlikely to cut rates | High inflation + tight liquidity
Hedging ability | Weak (valuation suppression) | Weak (highly correlated with risk assets)

3. Three risks requiring caution in the short term

This week, the US will release employment and inflation data sequentially. If the data exceeds expectations, it could severely undermine rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, if MSCI’s proposal excludes companies with more than 50% digital asset exposure—such as Strategy (which relies on its premium arbitrage capital flow for about 60% of daily trading volume)—it could deal a heavy blow to core "engines." This hidden risk might be more damaging in the long term than short-term oil price shocks.

Conclusion

The current market more resembles a sentiment-driven correction rather than a trend reversal. Both markets share vulnerabilities: they rely heavily on a few driving factors to sustain prices, and macro pressures have not truly eased. For the crypto market, the key variables to watch this week are employment data and whether Bitcoin can hold the $80k level—if it falls below, the derivatives-driven long structure could accelerate a reversal.