Gate News 消息，3 月 10 日，预测市场平台 Polymarket 上，一个在 Crypto 领域过往 7 笔交易均涉及微策略话题且保持全胜的账户投入 7500 美元买入「无事发生：微策略」（押注「是」），开仓均价为 30¢，目前该选项的价格已跌至 12.5¢。该账户的过往 7 笔交易中，均为持有直至结算，无止盈行为，其平均开仓金额为 2500 美元。
「无事发生」系列盘口为 Polymarket 上专为特定话题设定的多合一市场，将多个独立盘口整合成一个「无事发生」市场。根据结算规则，如果在美东时间 2026 年 3 月 31 日 23:59 前，微策略触发以下任意一项条件，该盘口即结算为「否」：出售任何比特币、宣布持有超过 75 万枚比特币、宣布破产，或被纳入标普 500 指数。若上述事件均未发生，则结算为「是」。
在这四项触发条件中，目前最大的变数在于「宣布持有超过 75 万枚比特币」。微策略于昨日（3 月 9 日）刚刚宣布增持 17,994 枚比特币，目前总持有量已达 738,731 枚，距离 75 万枚的门槛仅需再购买 11,269 枚。受此持续增持动作影响，与之对应的另一相关盘口「微策略是否会在 3 月 31 日前宣布持有超过 74 万枚比特币」目前的概率已高达 98%。
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