The Federal Reserve's delay in cutting interest rates, a strong dollar, and a high-interest-rate environment continue to suppress the entire commodities market.

$CL
Crude oil is currently caught in a "supply and demand double kill" dilemma.
Supply side: The ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran have eased geopolitical tensions, and the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation. After the ceasefire news was announced, the US benchmark crude oil price has already fallen sharply by about 14%.
Demand side: Even worse: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its global oil demand forecast for 2026 from a growth of 730,000 barrels per day last month to a contraction of 80,000 barrels per day, with a projected year-on-year decline of up to 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter.
Gold's current situation is very awkward.
Geopolitical conflicts should theoretically benefit gold, but rising oil prices have boosted inflation expectations, which in turn has caused the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, turning it into a bearish factor. After the March policy meeting, the Fed's dot plot showed only one rate cut in 2026, and even seven officials believed rate cuts were unnecessary.
The situation in the capital market is even worse: In March, commodities ETFs experienced a record outflow of about $11 billion, with gold ETFs alone losing more than $7 billion.
$XAU
Silver is like an "amplifier" of gold.
Its industrial properties make silver more afraid of a global slowdown than gold. Currently, high oil prices also suppress global demand expectations, and silver's industrial attributes create a clear drag, making it difficult to fully replicate gold's safe-haven logic. Additionally, silver's positions are more crowded than gold's, so once stop-profit or passive reduction occurs, silver's decline usually exceeds that of gold.
Rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, and a strong dollar in turn suppresses all dollar-denominated commodities. Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from "when will it happen" to "whether it will happen at all."