Proyeksi Harga Pi Network 2026: Bisakah Utilitas Nyata Mengungguli Tekanan Pasokan?

The post-launch crash: how scaling met skepticism

Pi Network’s mainnet debut on February 20, 2025 promised a fresh start — the project finally gave its 17.5 million KYC-verified users a live blockchain to settle transactions on. Initial momentum delivered: PI hit $3.00 within days, printing a staggering all-time high by late February. Then reality hit hard. By year’s end, PI had shed over 90% from that peak, limping toward the $0.21 mark as of late December. The culprit wasn’t a lack of activity. Mainnet migration brought 15.7 million users on-chain, network partnerships expanded to include gaming integrations and AI-enhanced verification tools, and the project shipped ecosystem milestones like its first developer hackathon. Yet none of it moved the needle on price. The disconnect reveals crypto’s oldest problem: announcement cycles don’t equal adoption cycles.

The supply trap nobody wants to discuss

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: 437 million PI tokens now sit on centralized exchanges — representing roughly 3.4% of total supply but creating a constant overhang. When you have 17.5 million users with exchange-deposit permissions, that’s not a feature, it’s a pressure valve waiting to open wider. The data tells the story: supply on CEXs keeps climbing, even as narrative attempts to frame it as “limited float” that could spark squeezes. That’s wishful thinking layered on top of a real problem.

What makes it worse is the concentration angle. Pi Foundation wallets hold massive balances, and an anonymous wallet with over 391 million PI tokens sits as the sixth-largest holder. Add in the mandatory KYB requirement for exchange listings — a hurdle that keeps major tier-1 venues away — and you get a market caught between two fears: not enough liquidity to absorb real demand, yet too much shadow supply to sustain a rally.

Compare this dynamic to how bitcoin price forecasts for 2026 assume steady institutional adoption and limited new supply. Pi faces the opposite: massive user base, constrained legitimate venues, and 1.21 billion tokens waiting to unlock in 2026. That’s not a comparable setup.

The technical roadmap versus the trust deficit

Pi Network isn’t sitting idle on product. The team announced a testnet migration to Stellar protocol version 23, which unlocks smart contract functionality — genuinely material if executed cleanly. Beyond that, the ecosystem expansion roadmap includes a DEX, liquidity pools, and token creation tools, with gaming partnership testing slated for Q1 2026. The August-to-October hackathon saw 215 developer submissions, suggesting some real builder interest beneath the noise.

Yet here’s the gap: product announcements haven’t translated into confidence recovery. Nicolas Kokkalis’ public appearances at industry conferences coincided with sharper sell-offs, not rallies. A $100 million investment arm launched, followed by an OpenMind computational test — and the market yawned. This pattern reveals that markets price in execution credibility, not roadmap ambition. Without a track record of delivered utility turning into sustained usage, every announcement reads as “we’re trying, but prove it first.”

The Stellar protocol v23 move is critical because it could unlock real on-chain activity — payments, settlement, merchant integration. But the window to prove that is narrow. Investors will need to see actual dApp traction, user retention on mainnet, and sustained transaction volume before rewarding PI with a meaningful valuation expansion.

2026: the collision of supply and possibility

The year ahead shapes up as a genuine fork in the road:

Headwinds:

• 1.21 billion PI tokens are scheduled to unlock, creating cascading sell pressure in a market already sensitized to dilution
• Faster KYC-to-mainnet migrations could accelerate the flow of tokens toward exchanges
• Without tier-1 exchange access, liquidity remains fragmented, making genuine price discovery difficult
• Regulatory ambiguity around what Pi Network actually is — network? token? utility? — still hangs over the project

Tailwinds:

• If Stellar protocol v23 rolls cleanly to mainnet, smart contracts unlock a new category of use cases (micropayments, escrow, local commerce)
• 17.5 million verified users represent genuine distribution that most Layer 1 projects can only dream of — if the network can convert them to active participants
• A clearly communicated tokenomics plan could reduce the “trust discount” that’s currently baked into the chart
• Gaming partnerships testing for Q1 2026 could drive early-stage utility demand

The real x-factor is whether the team can thread the needle: ship working smart contracts, attract developer ecosystem interest, and manage unlock mechanics carefully enough that supply doesn’t kolaps the chart. It’s possible. It’s also why many observers remain on the sidelines.

Price levels: support and resistance in a hostile market

On the daily timeframe, PI has held above $0.2000 for several weeks, though conviction remains thin. Technical resistance marks the path upward: the October 27 high of $0.2945 acts as the near-term ceiling, with the psychological $0.4000 and $0.5000 levels beyond that. Weekly RSI is rising out of oversold territory (sitting at 30), and the MACD shows reduced selling pressure — both subtle bullish signals if price can hold support.

The downside risks are sharper: breaks below $0.1924 (October 17 low) target $0.1533 next, with the $0.1000 listing price representing the final support before open downside discovery. Should supply unlock volatility force a cascade through that level, there’s no obvious floor in sight.

Realistically, any sustained recovery above $0.3000 would require concrete evidence of mainnet utility adoption — not just roadmap announcements. Until then, rallies are likely to be sold into.

The 2026 price scenarios: execution, not enthusiasm

Conservative case ($0.35–$0.75): Limited adoption progress, real-world use cases remain theoretical, and exchange access stays restricted. Supply pressure outweighs narrative improvements. This remains the baseline expectation given 2025’s broken promises.

Moderate case ($0.75–$2.00): Adoption broadens materially, ecosystem dApps see measurable usage, Pi secures additional exchange listings, and the team ships Stellar v23 without major hitches. Still requires multiple dominoes to fall in the right order.

Bullish case ($2.00+): Strong global adoption, genuine utility at scale, crypto market tailwinds, and favorable regulatory clarification. This path exists mathematically but requires Pi to move past speculation into a sustained, evidence-based rally.

What isn’t in any scenario: a mid-2026 rebound exceeding $1.00 without credible on-chain activity metrics backing it up. The era of “team shipped an upgrade, now pump it” has ended. Markets want proof.

The bottom line: 2026 is a do-or-die year

Pi Network enters 2026 with genuine advantages (massive user base, product roadmap, developer interest) and genuine vulnerabilities (supply overhang, limited venues, trust deficit). The project can’t coast on either factor alone. It needs to deliver working smart contracts, attract real developers, and manage unlocks carefully enough that the supply story doesn’t kolaps momentum before utility can take hold.

For investors watching from the sidelines — and there are many — 2026 will finally test whether Pi Network is a sleeping giant or an oversold cautionary tale about distribution without traction.