Ekspektasi dovish Fed mulai mempengaruhi, IHSG kokoh di level 28K, tiga institusi besar beli bersih sebesar 191,17 miliar rupiah dalam satu hari

The probability of the Fed (美聯準會) cutting interest rates in December is as high as 96%, and Asian funds are rotating accordingly. The Taiwan Weighted Index (台股加權指數) closed today at 28,303.78 points, up 322.89 points (1.15%), breaking through and stabilizing above the 28K level, signaling a recent technical strength. The three major institutional investors collectively bought over NT$19.117 billion, setting a new single-day high, with trading volume expanding to NT$424.744 billion, indicating strong bullish consensus.

The Three Major Institutional Investors Fully Engaged, Foreign Investors Lead in Buying Blue Chips and Semiconductors

Today, the three major institutional investors bought over NT$19.117 billion, continuing a four-day buying trend, with clear capital flow strategies for year-end portfolio adjustments.

Foreign Institutional Dominance in Buying: Net purchase of NT$14.088 billion, maintaining four consecutive days of positive operation, with a net inflow of NT$36.8 billion this week. Foreign investors focused on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) (purchasing 10,500 shares, stock price up 2.4% to NT$1,495, a gain of NT$35), as well as Hon Hai (buying 5,200 shares) and Nanya Technology (buying 2,500 shares), along with other blue-chip and memory concept stocks.

Investment Trust Shifts to Financial Sector: Net purchase of NT$1.029 billion, with clear strategic adjustments. Investment trusts began avoiding high-priced tech stocks and instead allocated funds to financial groups like Fubon Financial (buying 3,801 shares), indicating a capital rotation from tech to financials.

Proprietary Traders Rush into Emerging Concepts: Net purchase of NT$4 billion, mainly targeting memory and PCB sectors, including Winbond Electronics (buying 1,800 shares) and Unimicron (buying 1,740 shares), echoing the hot demand in AI server industry chains.

Asian Capital Rotation, Low-Valuation Financial Stocks Become New Favorites

With the US dollar index falling to 102.5, indicating a weak trend, net foreign inflows into Asian markets this week exceeded US$15 billion. The core logic of this rotation is: capital is withdrawing from overvalued US tech stocks and shifting into undervalued Asian financial and consumer concept stocks.

Major Asian stock markets today mostly rose. The Nikkei 225 increased by 1.2% to 39,800 points; Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.8% to 2,650 points; China’s Shanghai Composite Index increased 0.3% to 3,150 points; India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.9% to 24,200 points. India and Vietnam each attracted US$2 billion in capital, benefiting from 6-7% GDP growth and global supply chain shifts.

The proportion of foreign investment in Japan has decreased to 40%, but inflows are now focused on banking stocks (up 2.5%), reflecting institutional revaluation of value under low yield environments. Leading Chinese manufacturing companies like CATL rose 1.1%, benefiting from signs of consumption recovery.

Internal Rotation of Taiwan Stocks Intensifies, Short-term Speculation Signals Emerge

Taiwan stocks closed above 28K, but internal sector performance shows clear differentiation, with aggressive capital concentrating in specific concepts.

Semiconductor Sector Booming: Semiconductor index surged 2.31%, with Wanghong, Winbond, Vanchip, Siliconware Precision Industries, and Huadong hitting daily limit-ups. Nanya Technology rose 6.86% to NT$163.5, driven by a 15% increase in DRAM and NAND prices and inventory replenishment demand.

Glass and PCB Rally: Glass sector rose 4.22%, leading the rally, with Taiwan Glass up 4.8% to NT$38.2, and Fuhong Technology up 7.73%. PCB stocks continued their hot streak, with Unimicron up 4.8%, supported by full orders for AI servers and a global electronics supply chain recovery.

Blue Chips and Financial Stocks Follow Suit: TSMC rose 2.4% to NT$1,495 (setting a new high for Taiwan stocks), contributing over 200 points to the index; Hon Hai and MediaTek increased 0.43% and 1.05%, respectively. Financial stocks rose 0.28%, with Fubon Financial and Taishin Financial up over 2%, benefiting from the NT dollar appreciating to NT$31.25, reducing currency exchange costs.

However, the Taiwan Stock Exchange also identified 15 stocks to watch, with a high cancellation rate of 30-50%, including Nanya Technology, Winbond, Unimicron, Taiwan Glass, and other semiconductor, PCB, and shipping concept stocks. This indicates that although bullish sentiment is strong, short-term speculation and main force control risks are also rising.

Year-End Portfolio Adjustment Logic Supports but Fed Decision Risks Caution

Fubon Investment Advisory Chairman Chen Yiguang analyzed that this rebound in Taiwan stocks is driven by dovish Fed expectations and year-end portfolio adjustments. Historical data shows that after a 2.15% decline in November, December’s average gain is 4-6%, consistent with seasonal patterns. Taiwan’s market capitalization reaches NT$82.5 trillion, and trading volume is expected to rebound to NT$4,500 billion.

On the technical side, the RSI of the weighted index has risen to 68, indicating a bullish zone, with support at 28,000 points and resistance testing at 28,500 points. PGIM Prudential analyst Liao Bingkun pointed out that the profitability of AI will continue into the end of the year, and if the Taiwan stock closing price stabilizes, it could challenge 28,500 points.

However, risks must also be carefully assessed. Moore Investment Consulting analyst Xie Wen’en warned that year-end portfolio adjustments may tempt retail investors to chase highs. If the core PCE data released after the Fed meeting exceeds expectations, it could trigger profit-taking, and a repeat of the August 2024 Taiwan index futures limit-down event is possible.

Investment Advice: Reduce Positions on Rallies and Focus on Fundamentals

For investors, this rebound in Taiwan stocks is not just a simple extension of the Fed effect but also reflects the strategic importance of Asian markets in global capital rotation. Recommended strategies are as follows:

Reduce High-Flying Speculative Stocks on Rallies: For stocks like Nanya Technology, Winbond, Unimicron, set stop-losses within 5%, and consider taking profits on rallies to avoid being trapped at high levels.

Shift to Fundamentally Stable Assets: Prioritize holdings in financial blue chips like Fubon Financial, Taishin Financial, and blue-chip semiconductor stocks like TSMC, which offer both attractive yields and solid fundamentals.

Diversify Holdings and Monitor Policy Changes: Keep close watch on tonight’s US economic data and the Fed meeting decisions in the coming days, adjusting positions accordingly.

Overall, the Taiwan stock market closing above 28K indicates a technical breakout, but caution is advised regarding overheated sectors and internal sector differentiation, which are key to wise investment.