#美联储降息 $TNSR $ZEC $BTC

The Federal Reserve's policy currents for 2026 are brewing, with a $20 billion settlement pressure looming.

The suspense over the rate hike cycle is finally about to be revealed. Currently, all market attention is focused on the Fed's policy framework for next year, especially how much longer Powell will remain at the helm.

The most turbulent aspect is the disagreement among FOMC members. Some insist on continuing rate cuts in the first half of 2026, others believe a pause is needed in the first quarter, and a hawkish faction has outright stated "don't expect rate cuts in the long term." The divergence in institutional forecasts has significantly increased the risk of market re-pricing.

The key issue here: Powell's term will expire in mid-2026, turning long-term policy forecasts into a guessing game. Coupled with the high likelihood of increasing dissent within the Fed next year, the dot plot and Powell's speeches could stir the market more intensely than actual rate adjustments.

Inflation data and employment figures remain relatively resilient, so don't expect aggressive rate cuts. Powell will certainly focus on these two data points; without cooling inflation or weakening employment, imagining a large-scale rate cut is basically unlikely.

But that’s not even the most intense part. The BTC price is above two major short liquidation zones, with a total nominal exposure of $20 billion. Once Bitcoin hits this price range, a large number of leveraged short positions will be forced to close, amplifying volatility. Breaking through the first dense liquidation zone could inertia push prices toward the second. If a large-scale liquidation cluster is truly disrupted, a sharp short squeeze could trigger a rally, often followed by a retracement after breaking psychological thresholds. How high it can go depends on real-time liquidity, spot ETF fund flows, and large traders' selling willingness.

The current question is: will the Fed’s policy signals trigger a Bitcoin correction, or will they leverage this liquidation pressure for a violent surge? What are your thoughts?