خمسة استنتاجات رئيسية من قرار المحكمة العليا التاريخي ضد رسوم ترامب

الرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترامب يشير أثناء حديثه خلال مؤتمر صحفي في البيت الأبيض، عقب حكم المحكمة العليا الذي قضى بأن ترامب تجاوز سلطاته عندما فرض الرسوم الجمركية، في واشنطن العاصمة، الولايات المتحدة، 20 يناير 2026.

كيفن لامارك | رويترز

كان من المتوقع على نطاق واسع أن تقوم المحكمة العليا يوم الجمعة بإلغاء عدد كبير من الرسوم الجمركية التي فرضها الرئيس دونالد ترامب على الواردات. وما هو أقل يقينًا بكثير هو التأثيرات على المدى الطويل مع عودة الاقتصاد والأسواق للتكيف مرة أخرى مع المشهد المتغير.

وعد ترامب ومسؤولو البيت الأبيض الآخرين باستخدام سلطات أخرى لتنفيذ الرسوم الجمركية، حيث أعلن الرئيس بالفعل عن فرض رسوم بنسبة 10% بموجب قسم من قانون التجارة لعام 1974.

ومع ذلك، تبقى أسئلة أخرى: ما هو التأثير على الأسعار؟ هل ستسعى الشركات التي دفعت الرسوم المشمولة في قرار المحكمة العليا لاسترداد مبالغها؟ كيف سترد الاحتياطي الفيدرالي؟

إليك خمسة استنتاجات من الحكم والآثار المترتبة عليه.

1. التأثير الاقتصادي

باختصار، من المتوقع أن تكون التداعيات الكلية محدودة، خاصة في انتظار تحركات ترامب التالية وما يحدث مع مسألة الاستردادات.

وصف كبير الاقتصاديين في شركة RSM جوزيف بروسلوسا الأثر الاقتصادي المحتمل بأنه “ضيق”، على الرغم من وجود “مستفيدين محتملين هائلين من هذا الحكم”، خاصة في قطاعات التجزئة والصناعة الحساسة للرسوم الجمركية.

تباطأ النمو بشكل كبير في الربع الرابع، حيث بلغ معدل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي 1.4% سنويًا فقط. لكن ذلك كان إلى حد كبير بسبب إغلاق الحكومة، مع توقع نمو أسرع في الربع الأول من 2026.

قال جيسون برايد، رئيس استراتيجية الاستثمار والبحوث في شركة غلينميد: “الظروف المالية تشير بالفعل إلى دفعة إيجابية كبيرة في 2026، مدفوعة بقانون الفاتورة الكبيرة الجميلة وسياسة نقدية ميسرة”. وأضاف: “قد يعزز حكم الرسوم الجمركية بشكل تدريجي هذا التحفيز، مما يعزز التوقعات لنمو اقتصادي فوق الاتجاه”.

حذر برايد من أنه قد يكون هناك تأثير مؤقت على الصادرات إذا سارع الشركات لاستيراد المنتجات قبل تحركات ترامب القادمة بشأن الرسوم، كما فعلت في أوائل 2025.

2. بعض المساعدة للتضخم

جاء قرار المحكمة في نفس اليوم الذي أبلغت فيه وزارة التجارة عن أن التضخم الأساسي بلغ معدلًا سنويًا بنسبة 3% في ديسمبر، وفقًا لمؤشر التوقعات الرئيسي للاحتياطي الفيدرالي. قدر مسؤولو البنك المركزي أن الرسوم الجمركية تساوي حوالي نصف نقطة مئوية على التضخم، وهو تأثير سيكون مؤقتًا على الأقل من حيث طريقة حساب التضخم.

لذا، فإن فقدان الرسوم يقلل، في الوقت الحالي، من عائق اقتصادي محتمل قد يؤثر على قرارات الاحتياطي الفيدرالي بشأن أسعار الفائدة هذا العام.

شاهد الآن

فيديو3:4903:49

“غير مغفور” المحكمة العليا استغرقت وقتًا طويلاً لاتخاذ قرار بشأن الرسوم الجمركية، يقول أستاذ وارتون جيريمي سيغل

إغلاق السوق

من المثير للاهتمام أن الأسواق يوم الجمعة تراجعت قليلاً عن توقعاتها بشأن خفض أسعار الفائدة، الآن تضع احتمالية أكبر لحدوث التخفيض التالي في يوليو بدلاً من يونيو، كما كان سابقًا، وفقًا لبيانات CME Group. لا يزال المتداولون يتوقعون بشكل كبير خفضين هذا العام، مع احتمالية حوالي 40% لثالث، وهو أمر لم يتغير كثيرًا عن قبل القرار.

قال محللو إيفركور آي إس آي في مذكرة: “نعتقد أن قرار المحكمة العليا بإلغاء رسوم IEEPA لن يكون له تأثيرات كلية كبيرة على الاقتصاد الأمريكي أو على الاحتياطي الفيدرالي”.

3. بعض الراحة للسوق

على مدى العام الماضي، كانت تصريحات ترامب الأكثر حدة بشأن الرسوم الجمركية تتسبب بشكل دوري في هبوط الأسواق المالية — ثم تعود للارتفاع بعد أن تراجع عن العديد من الإجراءات الأكثر عدوانية.

وفيما يتماشى مع ذلك، ارتفعت الأسهم يوم الجمعة، متجاهلة المخاوف بشأن وتيرة النمو والتضخم، ورافعة الآمال بشأن أرباح الشركات. ارتفعت عوائد الخزانة، لكن الحركة كانت محدودة حيث ناقش المستثمرون مزايا النمو مقابل التضخم.

قال دان سيلوك، رئيس إدارة السيولة والأجل القصير العالمي في جانوس هينديرسون: “بشكل أوسع، يؤكد القرار على تحول نحو سياسة تجارية أبطأ وأكثر قيودًا إجرائيًا، مما يقلل من تقلبات العناوين، لكنه يزيد من أهمية الآليات المالية واعتبارات العرض لأسواق الدخل الثابت”.

4. ماذا عن تلك الاستردادات؟

كان رد فعل وول ستريت مختلطًا بشأن احتمال استرداد الرسوم الجمركية.

قدر مورغان ستانلي أن الولايات المتحدة ستعيد حوالي 85 مليار دولار للأطراف المتضررة. ووفقًا لبروسولوسا من RSM، فإن الرقم يتراوح بين 100 مليار و130 مليار دولار، بينما وضع المحلل إيد ميلز من ريموند جيمس الإنفاق أعلى، حوالي 175 مليار دولار، وفقًا لنموذج جامعة بنسلفانيا.

سؤال واحد هو العملية. لم يتناول قرار المحكمة العليا القضية بشكل محدد، ومن المحتمل أن تترك الأمر للسلطات الأدنى. أشار القاضي بريت كافانو إلى احتمال وجود “فوضى” في تنظيم القضية. وتوقع بريان غاردنر، كبير استراتيجيي السياسات في ستيفل، أن الاستردادات لن تتم بأثر رجعي على الإطلاق بعد أن تمر القضية عبر المحاكم الأدنى.

قال غاردنر في مذكرة: “نظل متشككين في أن الحكومة سترد أو تدفع مبلغًا كبيرًا، لكن، مرة أخرى، لا تزال هذه القضية غير محسومة”.

5. ماذا الآن؟

سيكون الطريق من هنا معقدًا، لكن ترامب أشار في مؤتمر صحفي يوم الجمعة إلى عدم نيته التراجع عن محاولة فرض الرسوم الجمركية، التي وصفها مرارًا بأنها “أجمل كلمة” في القاموس.

نقطة مهمة هي أن الرسوم الجمركية لن تختفي كما لو كانت.

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