#IranTradeSanctions

في 12 يناير 2026، أعلن الرئيس دونالد ترامب عبر Truth Social أن الولايات المتحدة ستفرض رسومًا جمركية بنسبة 25% على أي دولة أو كيان "يمارس الأعمال التجارية" مع الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية. وُصف البيان بأنه فوري، لا رجعة فيه، وشامل. على الرغم من كونه موجزًا من حيث الشكل، إلا أن الإعلان يمثل تحولًا جوهريًا في كيفية تطبيق الولايات المتحدة للضغط الاقتصادي، مبتعدة عن العقوبات التقليدية نحو ما يعرّفه المحللون بشكل متزايد بأنه نفوذ تجاري قسري.
بدلاً من استهداف إيران مباشرة، تسعى هذه السياسة إلى فرض تكاليف اقتصادية على أطراف ثالثة تحافظ على علاقات تجارية مع طهران. وبهذا، تحوّل عقوبات إيران إلى اختبار امتثال عالمي، حيث يُستخدم الوصول إلى السوق الأمريكية كآلية تنفيذ نهائية.

واقع التنفيذ: سياسة ملزمة أم غموض استراتيجي؟
حاليًا، يوجد إعلان الرسوم الجمركية في مساحة بين الإشارة السياسية والقانون القابل للتنفيذ. على الرغم من لغة الإدارة التي تتحدث عن نهائية القرار، لم يُصدر بعد أمر تنفيذي رسمي، أو إرشادات من وزارة الخزانة، أو إطار عمل من مكتب مراقبة الأصول الأجنبية (OFAC) لتفعيل السياسة.
غياب تحديد القانون يخلق حالة من عدم اليقين الفوري. تظل عبارة "ممارسة الأعمال" غير معرفة، ويمكن نظريًا أن تشمل مجموعة واسعة من الأنشطة، بدءًا من شراء الطاقة المباشر إلى التعرض غير المباشر من خلال سلاسل التوريد، والخدمات المالية، واللوجستيات، والتأمين، أو نقل التكنولوجيا. بدون وضوح، يُترك للشركات متعددة الجنسيات تفسير المخاطر بمفردها، وغالبًا ما تلجأ إلى الإفراط في الامتثال لتجنب العقوبات المحتملة.
هذا الغموض يتوافق مع استراتيجيات "الضغط الأقصى" السابقة. الهدف ليس بالضرورة التنفيذ الفوري، بل تعديل السلوك. من خلال خلق حالة من عدم اليقين بدلاً من قواعد واضحة، تحفز الإدارة على الانسحاب الطوعي قبل أن تتكشف عملية قانونية. في الواقع، يصبح الخوف من التنفيذ المستقبلي هو التنفيذ ذاته.
السلطة القانونية وتحدي IEEPA
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